- It’s a Bit Hot. The monthly Jobs Report once again came in a bit hot. Data released today, June 7th, shows the US economy added 272,000 payroll jobs in May (Figure 1). This is far above what economists and Wall Street were expecting, and far above last month’s revised number of 165,000 additional payroll jobs. The unemployment rate — which is derived from a separate survey — ticked up from 3.9% to 4.0%.
Job gains this past month were concentrated in private education & health, government, leisure & hospitality, professional & business services, and construction (Figure 2). Consumers are still going out (hence the gain in leisure & hospitality employment), and we’re still building, especially in infrastructure and manufacturing (related to the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act). Durable goods manufacturing employment declined, which makes sense, since consumers have been pulling back on buying “stuff” (see Figure 4 below).
- Women’s labor force participation rate is at all-time highs. For women ages 25-54, 78.1% are in the labor force (Figure 3). Women are busy! Think about how this will impact household consumption behaviors. Household incomes are up year-over-year as more people are working, and household purchasing power is up as incomes have outpaced inflation, but households are also busier.
- Households are spending more on limited service restaurants compared to YA (Figure 4). Households are busy, household incomes are up, and purchasing power is up. Limited service restaurants provide affordable convenience.
American Consumer 